As the opinion polls foretold, so it has come to pass: in the election for their new state parliament held on 6 September 2026, voters in Sachsen-Anhalt didn’t just put the AfD first, but have put it so far in front that it is almost able to form a majority state government all on its own; almost, but not quite.
Had it been able to do so, the keystone of the federal German governing tradition dating back to 1949, that government should mean government by coalition, would have come crashing to the ground.
Having just failed to do so, a void has opened up. The rule of thumb, that on the road to a new German government, the election itself is only halfway – this still holds. But the terms on which this new government is formed, if at all, and how the political parties get there – this is unknown terrain.
This post explains how did the AfD do so well, suggests why it did so well, and considers what may happen next. The key point here is: the AfD has secured a huge advantage, but it hasn’t yet won.
Certainly, the parties of the centre – above all the CDU as the leading force among them in the state – have lost control, leaving the AfD with the freedom to form a coalition with whoever it can persuade to work with it. In the federal governing tradition, there can be no greater electoral prize.
But whether this is really the prize that the AfD seeks isn’t clear; nor whether the party itself is of one mind on the matter. Having seized the initiative, the AfD now has to start showing its hand.